White House officials have touted the possibility of a V-shaped recovery as soon as this summer, pining for a swift rebound once businesses reopen on a staggered basis. But some economists say a W-shaped recovery is increasingly likely, in part because creating a vaccine is likely to take at least a year and millions of Americans and businesses are piling up debt without an easy ability to repay it.
“Pretending the world will return to normal in three months or six months is just wrong,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. “The economy went into an ice age overnight. We’re in a deep freeze. As the economy thaws, we’ll see the damage done as well. Flooding will occur.”